PROJECT TITLE :

Hidden Markov Models for the Prediction of Impending Faults

ABSTRACT:

Reliability and safety are 2 vital ideas in industrial applications. So, the development of monitoring tools, which are in a position to make sure the continuity of service by predicting faults, ought to improve competitiveness. This paper presents 2 probabilistic ways based on hidden Markov models (HMMs) for the prediction of impending faults. This paper shows that a prediction of faults is not restricted to the estimation of the remaining useful life however is additionally extended to the estimation of the risk of an imminent appearance of faults in the long run. The first methodology consists in modeling the degradation process of the studied system by a single HMM. A probabilistic model is proposed to predict an imminent look of a fault. The second method consists in modeling the degradation states by a group of HMMs. Another probabilistic model is proposed to predict an imminent appearance of a fault. An experimental application is proposed to demonstrate their applicability. The obtained results show their effectiveness to predict the imminent appearance of faults.