PROJECT TITLE :

Risk Assessment for a National Renewable Energy Target Part I: Developing the Model

ABSTRACT:

Around the globe, renewable energy-generating systems (RES) have dramatically expanded in capacity and in energy generated. A selection of means that have driven this expansion, including mandates to satisfy RES-based generation targets. Abundant of the RES-connected literature has targeted on improving technical aspects of performance, reducing integration barriers, or estimating benefits from increased RES generation. Little work has thought-about how RES technologies may satisfy mandated utility-scale generation targets. This paper proposes a quantitative risk model to estimate the likelihood of meeting a national RES generation target. This paper uses as a case study the United Kingdom's steps to fulfill its mandate below the European Union's 2009 Renewable Energy Directive. This paper presents the first half of this study by introducing the concept, the target, the approach, the data sources, and therefore the resulting scenarios. This paper describes the model's assumptions and sensitivity analysis, concluding by summarizing the steps to complete the case study.